LNP 4.1% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Jim McDonald, since 2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Lockyer covers rural areas between Toowoomba and Ipswich. The seat covers the Lockyer Valley local government area and southern parts of the Somerset council area. The seat covers the towns of Laidley, Gatton, Lowood and Helidon.
History
The seat of Lockyer first existed from 1888 to 1932, and has existed continuously since 1950. The modern seat has never been held by the Labor Party.
The seat was held from 1950 to 1980 by Liberal Party members, and was won in 1980 by the National Party’s Tony Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald held the seat throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but in 1998 lost to One Nation’s Peter Prenzler.
Prenzler left One Nation in 1999 to found the City Country Alliance. In 2001, Prenzler lost to the new One Nation candidate, Bill Flynn.
Flynn became leader of One Nation in the Queensland Parliament following the 2001 election, and held the seat for one term before losing in 2004.
The seat held from 2004 until 2017 by Ian Rickuss, who held the seat first for the National Party and then for the LNP following the 2008 merger. Rickuss easily saw off a challenge from Katter’s Australian Party in 2012, and then narrowly held on against Pauline Hanson in 2015. Hanson came within 114 votes of winning Lockyer.
Rickuss retired in 2017, the LNP’s Jim McDonald won the seat against a lower-profile One Nation candidate.
Candidates
- Andrew Rockliff (United Australia)
- Corey West (One Nation)
- Janet Butler (Labor)
- Jim Savage (Independent)
- Rebecca Haley (Greens)
- Jim McDonald (Liberal National)
Assessment
Lockyer is a very conservative seat. The LNP would be favourites to win but if One Nation did well they could win here.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim Mcdonald | Liberal National | 10,377 | 35.8 | +0.8 |
| Jim Savage | One Nation | 9,960 | 34.4 | +8.5 |
| Nicole Lincoln | Labor | 6,635 | 22.9 | -2.6 |
| Ian Simons | Greens | 1,317 | 4.5 | +0.9 |
| Tony Parr | Independent | 683 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Informal | 1,176 | 3.9 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim Mcdonald | Liberal National | 15,666 | 54.1 | +2.5 |
| Jim Savage | One Nation | 13,306 | 45.9 | -2.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Lockyer have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The ‘east’ covers booths contained in the Somerset council area, while the remainder is contained within Lockyer Valley council area.
The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in every area, ranging from 51.5% in the west to 54.5% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LNP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 23.4 | 54.5 | 9,391 | 32.4 |
| East | 32.3 | 52.8 | 4,787 | 16.5 |
| West | 19.5 | 51.5 | 4,007 | 13.8 |
| Pre-poll | 17.5 | 56.5 | 5,013 | 17.3 |
| Other votes | 21.4 | 54.2 | 5,774 | 19.9 |
Election results in Lockyer at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (LNP vs One Nation) votes and Labor primary votes.
What a seat. Quite an interesting history electorally since 1998. One of 3 seats held at the 2001 Election (this and Tablelands [of Hill lineage] stayed ONP despite their ’98 MPs leaving the party) by ONP. Pauline came oh so close in 2015 and probably wasted their chance in 2017 in an open seat. I can see the PUP vote being small here but with the ALP really running dead here, their vote will drop but where the vote goes is a good question. I still think 2017 ONP was at their peak, but this seat is always a threat. I still put it as LNP vs ONP, but as mentioned above, if ONP couldn’t get it in 2015 or 2017, I don’t think they’ll get it now.
Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Lean LNP
I wonder how things would have played out in both federal and QLD politics had Hanson won this seat in 2015!
Driving down from Toowoomba today I spotted a single Jim Savage independent for Lockyer. Assuming this is same Jim Savage he was Presidentbof PHON for a long time until President for Life Hanson dictated too much and Savage like many others before him walked out on Hanson.
Move along, If Pauline herself couldn’t win here, There is no way her party could overturn a 4% margin unless Labor won a landslide victory and the LNP vote cratered
Daniel appears to have made a comment on Lockyer in “Recent Comments” but it does not appear in the actual thread.
@Nicholas Weston I expect she would have resigned the seat to contest the federal election, LNP would have won it back either in the byelection or 2017 election, and history would continue as normal.
A PHON type that picks up Labor and Green preferences could beat the LNP here, but PHON will have far better luck in seats like Mirani or Thuringowa where they beat LNP into 3rd for a runoff against ALP (as long as LNP direct preferences). PHON won’t ever be able to rely on ALP preferences, even as their vote increases on the back of former ALP voters.
Andrew: hard refresh the page if that happens. It’ll be something like Ctrl+F5 or Shift+F5, depending on what browser or OS you’re using. I get that a fair bit on Tally Room – probably some kooky WordPress bug.
Bird of Paradox
Thanks. Will try this but it is first time I have experienced problem.
AJ, looks like there are some new Savage signs now. Drove down from Tbar to Brisbane today and saw a few purple corflutes and one billboard sign for the man of ex PHON (in)fame.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
People of Lockyer please vote for Independent Jim Savage
LNP hold
This could all turn ugly for the LNP !!. if Savage gets in front of labor their preferences might take him past ON….Would be hilarious. doubt it will happen, but funny if it did.
Savage was the brains and organiser behind Ashby-Hanson so I would not be surprised if he mans Potts and PHON are in-sufficiently organised to have workers on booths.
This is the key thing we need to know tomorrow who is manning booths. No one handing out HTV and it does not matter how the HTV reads. My prediction will be that #1 candidate will be 90% a considered vote , 10% will cast a considered vote for balance of candidates but remainder will be random numbering’s of donkey votes after 1st preference.
This will mean an inflated ALP 2PPV but not sufficient to Gruen
Elected and most of Svages Preferencesflowingto Greens and ultimately to LNP ( or directly to LNP if Greens eliminated before Savage. reminiscent of Killen’s victory wth CPA votes flowing Com, DLP , LNP and then to ALP.